China’s Military Ambitions Unveiled: Key Takeaways from the Latest Pentagon Report
From Nuclear Expansion to Global Reach: Breaking Down the CMPR’s Highlights
In case you missed it last month amid the holiday excitement, the Department of Defense published its annual China Military Power Report (CMPR) for 2024. Formally titled the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the CMPR provides a dense, defense-jargon-filled analysis spanning over 160 pages.
While not light reading, the CMPR offers a substantive review of the PRC, surpassing the soundbites and analysis provided by news outlets. For those interested in a thoughtful, wide-ranging assessment of China’s military as part of its national security strategy, the CMPR delivers the Pentagon’s perspective.
Since its inception in 2000, Congress has mandated the CMPR in a prescribed format, slightly tweaked over time. This year’s report, for example, includes a special topics section. The consistent structure of chapters and topics allows readers to track trends and changes over time effectively.
Who uses the CMPR?
Senate and House Armed Services Committees
Senate Foreign Relation and House Foreign Affairs Committees
The report is available in both unclassified and classified versions, serving as a key resource in the national security policy development process. However, it is far from the only input; various internal and external contributions remain vital. Still, the CMPR stands out as one of the most comprehensive public government assessments available.
As with most Pentagon documents, the CMPR follows a top-down structure, moving from the “big picture” to granular details. It comprises six chapters:
PRC Strategy
The PLA (People’s Liberation Army)
Operations and Activities
Global Presence
Resources and Technology for Force Modernization
US-PLA Engagement and Contact
Key topics include:
Cyber, space, and nuclear developments
The armed forces and military technology
Expanding global presence and coercive activities
The industrial base
Deepening ties with Russia
Measuring "comprehensive national power" across domains
Here are a few highlights of what remains the same in this report, what’s new, and the PRC’s ongoing challenges.
So, what’s consistent from last year? A lot, but two key takeaways are:
Foremost, the PRC is still the DoD’s pacing threat (as laid out in the 2022 National Defense Strategy)
The focus remains on building a world-class force by 2049. The PRC sees an “increasingly turbulent strategic environment and domestic challenges” but is resolute in pressing ahead to achieve their lofty armed forces goals in the “New Era.” By 2027, to “Accelerate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization,” which is connected to the PLA’s goal to counter the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific and compel Taiwan to the negotiating table. Followed by completing the PLA’s total national defense buildup plans (2035) and by 2049, “to fully transform the people’s armed forces into world-class forces.” Although the Chinese Communist Party has not defined what it means by its ambition to have a “world-class,” it is believed to mean gaining parody or superiority over the U.S.
Annual Report to Congress, Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009 https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA495514.pdf
What’s new?
PRC defense spending is up, again. DoD estimates, Beijing spends 40% to 90% more on defense than it publicly discloses, equating to $330-$450 billon in total defense spending for 2024. In 2023 spend was about 30-40% over the reported public figure.
Nuclear weapon expansion and diversification. The PRC’s nuclear arsenal has grown by 100 nuclear warheads to some 600 today. The PRC’s nuclear strategy is evolving, and by the end of the decade, they will have more than 1,000 warheads, increasing not just numbers but also quality and diversified capabilities in more accurate regional and lower-yield warheads, according to the CRMP.
Increased Power Projection. The PLA’s is improving its military capability out beyond the first island chain and is pressing towards its longer-term ambition to become a global military able to defend their interests worldwide.
…and the challenges:
Persistent corruption. In 2023, a new wave of corruption-related investigations and removals of senior leaders may have disrupted the PLA’s progress toward stated 2027 modernization goals, according to the CMPR. Last year, approximately 15 high-ranking military officers and defense industry executives were sacked. In December, Xi Jinping suspended Central Military Committee member Admiral Miao Hua, placing him under investigation for ‘serious violation of discipline,’ while prior, Defense Minister Dong Jun was also placed under investigation for corruption. Xi’s personal attention to anti-corruption reaching up to the highest levels suggests the seriousness and its undermining impact on the PRC achieving its goals.
Operational Deficiencies. As reported through their media, the PLA has important warfighting shortcomings referred to as “the five incapables.” These shortcomings are
The ability of commanders to judge situations,
To understand higher authorities and tensions,
To make operational decisions,
To deploy forces, and especially,
To manage unexpected situations
Final Thoughts. The CMPR provides a detailed examination of China’s military ambitions and challenges with some findings consistent with previous years. The report highlights new dimensions of the PRC’s strategy, including its nuclear buildup, increasing global reach, and ongoing internal obstacles. For policymakers, analysts, and those curious about the Pentagon’s perspective on China, the CMPR remains a vital resource for understanding the complexities of the PRC.
For a look at the PRC’s maritime ambitions, take a look at our post on Michael McDevitt’s China as a Twenty-First Century Naval Power, where the author provides a first-class, comprehensive examination of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) from the “why” of China’s maritime ambition and its integral linkage to China’s geostrategic vision—securing trade and a national interest-dependent economy—through to the ‘how’ of building the objective maritime capability.
Our post on The Commission on The National Defense Strategy: A Call to Action covers the commission’s report, which warns that the U.S. is not keeping pace with China, our primary military competitor, and calls for decisive steps to secure our future.
Tags: Military Happenings
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